How Fortune Wheel Probability Works

Overview

This article explains the logic behind the Fortune Wheel drawing algorithm. We will look at how winning chances are calculated, why consecutive wins can happen, and how the system ensures your campaign limits are respected regardless of probability.

The Logic Behind the Spin

The most important concept to understand is that the Fortune Wheel uses independent probability. Here is a simple breakdown of what that means for your campaigns.

1. Every Spin is a Fresh Start

The drawing system has no "memory." The result of a previous spin does not influence the odds of the next one.

If you configure 5 prizes, each with a 20% chance to win:

• Spin 1: The user has a 20% chance to win Prize A.

• Spin 2: The user still has a 20% chance to win Prize A.

The system does not automatically "balance" the results. It doesn't lower the odds just because a prize was won recently; it simply calculates the chance anew for every interaction.

2. Can a User Win the Same Prize Twice?

Yes. Because every spin is independent, it is statistically possible for a user to win the same prize two, three, or even five times in a row.

The "Coin Flip" Analogy: Imagine flipping a coin. If you get Heads, the chance of getting Heads on the next flip is still 50/50. You could flip Heads five times in a row, even though it is statistically unlikely.

• The Math: While winning a 20% prize five times in a row is possible, the odds are very low (roughly a 0.03% chance).

3. The Safety Net: Priority of Limits

You might be concerned that a string of lucky wins could drain your budget. To prevent this, the system applies a Business Logic Layer that overrides the probability engine.

Even if the wheel lands on a "win," the system checks your configuration before awarding the prize. The prize will be blocked if:

• Reward Limits: The specific stock for that item has reached zero (e.g., you only had 50 T-Shirts to give away).

• Campaign Limits: The global budget or total spin limit for the campaign has been hit.

• Member Limits: The specific customer has reached their daily or total limit for winning rewards.

If any of these limits are hit, the user will receive a non-winning result (or an alternative "consolation" prize), ensuring you never exceed your inventory.

Final tips and comments

• Visualizing the Math: A helpful way to think about this logic is the "Marbles in a Bag" analogy. Imagine a bag with 5 marbles (1 Red prize, 4 Blue non-prizes). When a user plays, they pick a marble, see the result, and put the marble back in the bag. Because the marble is returned, the odds for the next person are exactly the same.

• Configuration Best Practice: Because lucky streaks are mathematically possible, never rely on probability percentages alone to control your costs. Always set strict Reward Limits (Quantity) for high-value items to ensure a hard cap on your budget.